Health Sciences
Haruna Umar Yahaya; Mohammed Tanimu; Olisaemeka Obi
Abstract
Background: Despite efforts to improve road safety, Nigeria continues to have a high number of traffic crashes and fatalities. This has contributed to Nigeria's death rates. The study aimed to model and anticipate the trend of road traffic collisions and fatalities in Nigeria. Methods: The ...
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Background: Despite efforts to improve road safety, Nigeria continues to have a high number of traffic crashes and fatalities. This has contributed to Nigeria's death rates. The study aimed to model and anticipate the trend of road traffic collisions and fatalities in Nigeria. Methods: The study employed a descriptive retrospective approach to examine the trend of road traffic crashes and their associated fatalities in Nigeria. The study used secondary data from the Federal Road Safety Corps (FRSC) database spanning sixty years, from 1960 to 2020. Results: Between 1960 and 2020, Nigeria had an average of 19014 road traffic collisions and 6104 fatalities. The number of road traffic crashes in Nigeria increased from 1961 (10963) to 1976 (40881), then began to fall to (9694) in 2020, although road traffic fatalities continue to rise somewhat. The ARIMA (1,1,0) and Random walk models were shown to be the best fitted time series models for predicting the number of crashes and associated fatalities. Conclusion: Trend analysis in road traffic accidents remains an important component of ongoing efforts to minimize fatalities and injuries while promoting safer and more sustainable transportation systems. This study will investigate and synthesize current trends in road traffic accidents and fatalities, giving light on the factors that influence the road safety landscape.
Epidemiology
Mohammed Tanimu; Emem Victor Umanah; Haruna Umar Yahaya
Abstract
This study presents a thorough analysis of family planning methods and forecasting models using data from the Family Health Care Clinic in Abuja, Nigeria. The study reveals a significant variation in the usage of modern family planning methods. Notably, male condoms exhibit a wide range of usage patterns, ...
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This study presents a thorough analysis of family planning methods and forecasting models using data from the Family Health Care Clinic in Abuja, Nigeria. The study reveals a significant variation in the usage of modern family planning methods. Notably, male condoms exhibit a wide range of usage patterns, as indicated by their relatively high standard deviation (624.657). Female condoms, on the other hand, demonstrate the highest coefficient of variation (CV) at 90.44%, suggesting the greatest relative variation among the methods. Skewness and kurtosis measurements reveal distinct usage patterns, with injectables and intrauterine contraceptive devices (IUCD) displaying right-skewed and heavy-tailed distributions. In contrast, female condoms and implants exhibit negatively skewed and light-tailed distributions. The study highlights that the exclusive use of condoms by males surpasses all female family health care methods practiced during the study period, albeit showing a declining trend with seasonal variations. The Model (N), an ARIMA(1,0,2)x(2,1,2)12 model, emerges as the most accurate forecasting model during the estimation period with P-values indicating their statistical significance, and also exhibiting the lowest RMSE, MAE, MAPE, AIC, HQC, and SBIC values, and a negative MPE. This suggests that it provides the most precise predictions while maintaining relative simplicity. These findings hold significant implications for family planning programs and healthcare decision-making in Abuja, Nigeria.
